OSCAR PICKS!

Skipping all the shorts and docs and short docs that no one's seen...

SOUND MIXING:
Should Win: WALL-E. For creating a thoroughly engrossing audio world with no real-life base to draw from.
Will Win: Dark Knight. Also deserving.

SOUND EDITING: Just paste WALL-E and Dark Knight down here, too.

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Should Win: Dark Knight. Both for its amazingly evocative visuals and for balancing its traditional and IMAX filmmaking so flawlessly.
Will Win: Benjamin Button. It's epic and it's pretty.

ART DIRECTION:
Should Win: Dark Knight, for creating a sense of heightened realism while still feeling evocative of film noir and comic books.
Will Win: Benjamin Button. It's epic and it's yadda yadda.

COSTUME DESIGN:
Should Win: Benjamin Button. Remarkably evocative of time and place.
Will Win: Button. You take the Most Fabric rule, add it in with the Period Piece rule, and ya got a winner.

VISUAL EFFECTS:
Should Win: Benjamin Button. Amazing, revolutionary work that sets a new high bar, and redeems a mediocre story.
Will Win: Button. Dark Knight is possible, but Button's technical breakthroughs will outshine it.

MAKE-UP:
Should Win: Benjamin Button, with a nod to Hellboy's amazingly imaginative designs.
Will Win: Button.

EDITING:
Should Win: Slumdog. Awesome storytelling at a breakneck pace.
Will Win: Slumdog. Always bet on the one with the most cuts.

BEST SONG:
Should Win: "The Wrestler" by Bruce Springsteen. Oh, wait, IT DIDN'T GET NOMINATED. Whutsupwitdat, Academy?
Will Win: "Jai Ho" from Slumdog. Really a coin flip between the Slumdog nominees.

BEST SCORE:
Should Win: WALL-E. Its evocative score is more critical in its storytelling than any of the other nominees.
Will Win: Slumdog. Also powerful and haunting, in a different way.

BEST ANIMATED FILM:
Should Win: WALL-E. Do I even have to elaborate?
Will Win: WALL-E. If either Bolt or Kung-Fu Panda win, I will personally riot. Well, maybe not, but I'll be very confused.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Should Win: WALL-E. Such a brilliant, quirky script with genuine heart.
Will Win: Milk. A lot of people are gonna wanna honor it somewhere, and this is their chance. Unless...we'll get there soon.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Should Win: Frost/Nixon. Absolutely riveting.
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire. The Reader may pull the upset if it gets support higher up, but I still think this is Danny Boyle's night.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Should Win: Heath Ledger. He redefined an iconic villain in a film that relied on his performance. A fitting swan-song for an incredible talent.
Will Win: Ledger. Period.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Should Win: Marisa Tomei. Her performance was absolutely heartbreaking, and a second Oscar would finally shut Rex Reed up.
Will Win: Viola Davis. A memorable turn with limited screentime, and it makes for a great story to boot.

BEST ACTOR:
Should Win: I'm torn. Rourke was amazing in The Wrestler, as was Penn in Milk. But Frank Langella crafted a Richard Nixon that was a full character, not a caricature or simple imitation. He made Nixon human, which made his actions and downfall all the more tragic. So I'm going with Langella here.
Will Win: It's a two horse race between Rourke and Penn. Both are amazing work. Rourke winning is the better story, and he's won all the early awards, but will the WrestleMania connection hurt him? Penn is perhaps our best actor, but he just won a few years ago. Head says Rourke, gut says Penn. I toss a coin and...go with Mickey Rourke.

BEST ACTRESS:
Should Win: Kate Winslet. She's been nominated SIX times, she's been one of Hollywood's best performers for a long time, and her ability is the only thing that made her character's choices in the film somewhat comprehensible.
Will Win: Winslet. The Weinstein campaigning will have SOME effect, and I think it'll be here.

BEST DIRECTOR:
Should Win: Danny Boyle. He's been one of the best filmmakers on the outskirts of the Hollywood mainstream for a long time. This one is his invitation in.
Will Win: Boyle. Two words: Director's Guild.

BEST PICTURE:
Should Win: Frost/Nixon. I've struggled with this category for a long time, and I'm just gonna go with my gut. Slumdog and Milk are also brilliant and powerful, but Frost/Nixon had me more involved than any of them. Just amazing filmmaking.
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire. Reader and Milk are contenders for different reasons, but I've seen nothing that will knock Slumdog off its perch.

So, what are YOUR picks? :)