Looking Back at Lindsey

Here are my Oscar picks. So there.

Best Picture:
My gut reaction all along has been a “Brokeback Mountain” win, but my gut reaction was dead wrong last year, and one of the most accurate Oscar pickers (Roger) said that he thinks “Crash” will take it all. I’m still not shaken enough to change my pick, but it’s not as rock-solid as I once thought it was. As for who should, all five films are really, really good movies, but none of them had the emotional impact on me that “Crash” did.
Will Win: “Brokeback Mountain”
Should Win: “Crash”

Best Actress:
Reese Witherspoon has this one sewn up tighter than a hem on a puritan’s dress. Dench and Huffman may have given great performances, if only anyone had actually seen the movies they were in. Keira Knightley’s nomination is her grand coming out party as an actress, but the nomination is its own reward in this case. Charlize Theron once again gave us a heartfelt performance in an unexpected way, but she just won two years ago. That leaves Witherspoon, who crafted a June Carter which not only captured the soul of a classic performer, but was every bit as important to the story “Walk the Line” told as Johnny Cash was. It was the performance that made me stop hating her, who else COULD this go to?
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon
Should Win: Reese Witherspoon

Best Actor:
Not quite as sewn up as the actress category, here we have five damn good performances in a wide variety of films that a lot of folks have seen. I’d eliminate Strathairn from the running simply because his performance isn’t perceived as being as “showy” as some of the others on the list. Terrence Howard falls under the same category as Keira Knightly’s nomination in the previous category - the nomination is the acknowledgement and hope for great things to come. I’d also eliminate Joaquin Phoenix, though his work was brilliant, because we’re already honoring “Walk the Line” in Best Actress. That leaves a two actor race between Ledger and Hoffman, and when you get right down to it, Hoffman’s work is just the kind of star turn that Oscar loves, and it comes from a great performer who’s yet to be honored for his work. I’m going with Hoffman as your winner, and although everyone on this list is amazing, he’s also who I would vote for.
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

Best Supporting Actress:
Tough call here. I’d toss out Francis McDormand, because she’s won before, and Rachael Weisz, because as good as “The Constant Gardner” was, again, too few may have seen it to swing any votes her way. Catherine Keener is one of Hollywood’s great actresses, but she won’t win it because her Harper Lee wasn’t perceived as being really essential to the story of “Capote.” Amy Adams’s work in “Junebug” may be the spoiler here, but again, has anyone really seen the flick? My gut feeling is that we’ll wanna honor “Brokeback” in the acting category somewhere, and Michelle Williams’s performance as the emotionally tormented wife of Heath Ledger is as good a place as any. As far as should, perceived or not perceived, I found Keener’s performance crucial to the success of “Capote.”
Will Win: Michelle Williams
Should Win: Catherine Keener

Best Supporting Actor:
Another who’s who of great actors in this list. I’d toss out William Hurt because a lot of folks just plain didn’t like “A History of Violence,” disregarding the fact that his work was worthy of consideration on its own merits. Paul Giamatti’s nomination could be seen as some kind of carmic payback for his stunning lack of a nod last year for “Sideways,” but I don’t think he’ll win. Jake Gyllenhaal’s work was really a co-lead with Ledger, but putting both of them in the same lead category would be self-defeating - but something tells me he won’t win. That leaves Matt Dillon’s haunting work as the racist cop in “Crash,” and George Clooney’s performance as the estranged government agent in “Syriana.” Tough call, but I think Dillon’s work is seen as a great comeback statement, and folks just plain liked “Crash” more than they liked “Syriana.” As far as should…I’d be happy with anybody here, but Dillon was REALLY good in “Crash.”
Will Win: Matt Dillon
Should Win: Matt Dillon

Best Director:
Will win is pretty much a given: Ang Lee, who won the Director’s Guild award, which is as close to a rock-solid indicator as you can get in this crazy guessing game. Should win, however…of all five, George Clooney had the toughest assignment to handle, a black-and-white film where folks merely exchange heated ideas, and turned it into a masterpiece of pacing and tone. It was pretty clearly a labor of love, and it paid off in spades. Make a note: Clooney’s true future may very well be behind the camera.
Will Win: Ang Lee
Should Win: George Clooney

Best Animated Film:
This one is as close to a no-brainer as last year’s, really. Miyazaki is a master, but “Howl’s Moving Castle” was far from his best work, and he just won a few years ago for “Spirited Away.” “Corpse Bride” was okay, but a far cry from “The Nightmare Before Christmas,” which makes it look even weaker by comparison. But “Wallace and Gromit” is a tremendous comic romp from a studio that has churned out the most memorable cartoon creations of recent years, and Nick Park NEVER loses when he’s nominated. And he shouldn’t, here.
Will Win: “Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit”
Should Win: “Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit”

Best Documentary:
The best documentary of the year - nay, I firmly believe, the best FILM of the year, period - was Werner Herzog’s incredible character study “Grizzly Man.” But it wasn’t nominated, the biggest travesty since “Hoop Dreams” got shafted back in 1994. We still have some excellent films here - “Enron” and “Murderball” are both better than almost all of the nominees for best picture, IMO - but the category has a gaping hole as a result of this omission. Just sad. But to deal with the subject at hand, I have not seen either “Darwin’s Nightmare” or “Street Fight,” so I can’t really judge them, though their subject matter makes them seem more like filler than true contenders (which makes “Grizzly”’s absence all the more galling). “Enron” is an excellent and scathing look at the scandal, but may be deemed too subversive for the Academy to vote for. “Murderball” is the best doc of the nominees, but too few may have seen it, possibly because dense audiences thought it was “Rollerball.” “March of the Penguins,” however, was a surprise hit, and is a truly beautiful wildlife film, and the sheer determination it took to make it will earn it the statue. But “Murderball” is clearly the better film.
Will Win: “March of the Penguins”
Should Win: “Murderball”

Best Adapted Screenplay:
“Brokeback” will take this one pretty easily, and of the nominees, I’d say it easily deserves to, as well. Only “Capote” is a true challenger here, but “Brokeback”’s delicately beautiful handling of its subject matter deserves to be honored.
Will Win: “Brokeback Mountain”
Should Win: “Brokeback Mountain”

Best Original Screenplay:
If there’s a surprise to come out of the night, it’ll be here…in fact, I’m gonna go out on a limb and call “Match Point” to win this one. It was Woody’s comeback vehicle, it got surprisingly ignored in most every other category, the voters like Woody and will want to see him honored for his return to form. I may be wrong, but call it a hunch. As for who should, my respect for “Good Night, and Good Luck”’s understated yet powerful writing deepened with a second viewing.
Will Win: “Match Point”
Should Win: “Good Night, and Good Luck”

And the rest (that I know anything about):

Art Direction:
Will Win: “Memoirs of a Geisha”
Should Win: “King Kong”

Cinematography:
Will Win: “Brokeback Mountain”
Should Win: “Good Night, and Good Luck”

Costume Design:
Will Win: “Pride & Prejudice”
Should Win: “Pride & Prejudice”

Editing:
Will Win: “Crash”
Should Win: “Crash”

Makeup:
Will Win: “The Chronicles of Narnia”
Should Win: “Star Wars: Episode III”

Musical Score:
Will Win: “Brokeback Mountain”
Should Win: “Brokeback Mountain”

Original Song:
Will Win: “It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp,” Hustle & Flow
Should Win: Actually, I haven’t heard the other two songs… :)

Sound Editing:
Will Win: “King Kong”
Should Win: “King Kong”

Sound Mixing:
Will Win: “King Kong”
Should Win: “King Kong”

Visual Effects:
Will Win: “King Kong”
Should Win: “King Kong”