Oscar Picks '07

As I’ll be on the road to watch the Oscars at Lindsey’s place, I figure it’s now or never to make my Oscar picks, and thus give you all the chance to revel in my failures again. My “should wins” will follow, as usual, and we’re skipping all the short subjects and categories no one’s seen, as usual.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
We can throw “Poseidon” out right away, leaving us with two summer blockbusters, both of which had excellent effects, and used them well to either further their story or leave us with a sense of grandeur. “Superman” was the better film, “Pirates” had the better effects. Toss a coin…
Will Win: “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
Should Win: “Superman Returns”

BEST SOUND MIXING:
No one can define this category beyond the folks who vote for the nominees, so go for the one whose sound is most critical in its storytelling. That’d be “Dreamgirls,” which we’ll want to give a buncha statues in an effort to make up for its complete shut-out in the top category. And I think it deserves it, too.
Will Win: “Dreamgirls”
Should Win: “Dreamgirls”

BEST SOUND EDITING:
We’re leaning more toward the sound effects (i.e. Foley work) here, so go for the loudest film. That’s either half of Eastwood’s Iwo Jima epic, and since it was nominated for Best Picture, figure it’ll go to “Letters from Iwo Jima.” Either half could win and I’d be happy.
Will Win: “Letters from Iwo Jima”
Should Win: “Letters from Iwo Jima”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:
The three nominees from “Dreamgirls” are three of the least memorable songs in the film, really, and don’t really represent the whole of the film very well. It’s understandable, as they’re all the new songs written specifically for the film, and all the best stuff has been heard on stage before. I’d still guess that one of them is going to win; probably “Listen,” the splashiest song of the three. Of the rest, “Our Town” is just plain dull, while “I Need to Wake Up” is an emotionally powerful song which never fails to stir me when I hear it, and sums up the theme of “An Inconvenient Truth” beautifully. By all rights, it should win.
Will Win: “Listen,” “Dreamgirls”
Should Win: “I Need to Wake Up,” “An Inconvenient Truth”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Kind of an odd selection, here. Most of these films were not exactly memorable for their music. My gut tells me that “Pan’s Labyrinth,” with its haunting and evocative melodies, is basically a shoe-in, and it deserves to be.
Will Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Should Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”

BEST MAKEUP:
As always, we go for the film which used the most latex, and of these three, that goes to “Pan’s Labyrinth,” a film with some of the most imaginative visuals in years. If either “Apocalypto” or “Click” (freaking CLICK!) win this award, I’ll get as angry as someone can possibly get at the winner of a “Best Makeup” Oscar.
Will Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Should Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Come on.
Will Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Should Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”

BEST EDITING:
You go for most quick cuts in a category like this, under the usual heading of “flashiest job = Oscar.” That’s either “Babel” or “The Departed,” probably, and if we’re looking at a category like this as a sign of things to come, I’d guess “Babel” is taking this one. “The Departed” uses its editing to establish story and mood much better, though.
Will Win: “Babel”
Should Win: “The Departed”

BEST DOCUMENTARY:
I’ve only seen two of the five nominees, which is my failing, as the other three sound fascinating. My guess, though, is that “An Inconvenient Truth” is such a powerful and important film that it’d take one of the best docs of all time to knock it off here. “Jesus Camp” is an excellent film which tries hard to be as neutral as possible, perhaps to a fault (as the deleted scenes on the DVD seem to indicate that the filmmakers had footage which would have been even more damaging). But “Truth” is a powerful and emotional film by an individual whose political views are quite simpatico with the voters’. It’ll win, and it certainly should.
Will Win: “An Inconvenient Truth”
Should Win: “An Inconvenient Truth”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
As a corollary to the “most latex” rule, most fabric usually wins here. This year, though, I’m betting we’ll still wanna make it up to “Dreamgirls” that it got snubbed up higher on the list, so we’ll give it this one instead. I’d personally go for the lush look of “Marie Antoinette”’s costumes, myself.
Will Win: “Dreamgirls”
Should Win: “Marie Antoinette”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Prettiest film wins. Here that’s “Pan’s Labyrinth,” which evokes more mystery with its visuals than most films can even dream of.
Will Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”
Should Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”

BEST ART DIRECTION:
My two regular winners collide here, as both “Pan” and “Dreamgirls” are nominated. Head-to-head, my gut says that “Dreamgirls” will sweep most of its categories in a grand gesture of atonement, so go with it here. But “Pan’s” is a better film with much more imaginative sets.
Will Win: “Dreamgirls”
Should Win: “Pan’s Labyrinth”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
I have NO idea what anyone is seeing in “Monster House” (especially Roger), and I can’t see that one winning. “Happy Feet” may skate by on its themes, but how many people have you heard defend it as a movie? My gut says that “Cars” will rack up another victory for Pixar, and of the nominees, it’s pretty clearly the best film.
Will Win: “Cars”
Should Win: “Cars”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Most of our Best Picture nominees reside here, so this could be an early hint as to where the big statue is going. If “Little Miss Sunshine” is gonna shock the world (well, more like mildly surprise at this point), it’ll win. If not, it’ll go to “Babel,” which is the kind of “juggle multiple characters and stories” thing that Oscar voters love. Personally, I’d much rather prefer the witty, literate and fascinating dialogue of “The Queen” to take the statue, even though I didn’t think it was the best of the five films.
Will Win: “Babel”
Should Win: “The Queen”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Lots of good films here in an extremely eclectic range of genres. My ample gut tells me that if this is Scorcese’s year (and I believe it is), it is because people just plain like “The Departed,” and with its surprisingly small number of nominations in the performance categories, we’ll want to honor it beyond just the Directing award. And as much as I love “Borat” and would dance in the streets if Sacha Baron Cohen walked away with an Oscar, “The Departed” deserves the statue.
Will Win: “The Departed”
Should Win: “The Departed”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Jennifer Hudson has been the favorite to win this award since the film first got leaked to the press, and nothing in the interim has pried her vice grip on the statue loose. Both the “Babel” performers are excellent in their roles, but they may cancel each other out. They love Cate Blanchett, but has anyone really seen “Notes on a Scandal?” Abigail Breslin may be the spoiler under the Anna Paquin rule, but as much affection as folks have for “Little Miss Sunshine,” I really don’t see her winning. That leaves Hudson, who clearly outshines her fellow “Dreamgirls” and is the kind of newcomer success story Hollywood loves.
Will Win: Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”
Should Win: Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Now we get interesting. Eddie Murphy has been the favorite for months as well, but there HAS been something in the interim: namely “Norbit,” which came out at the WORST possible time, right when the voters would have the ballots in their hands. Can one bad film wipe out all that good will? I don’t think so: Murphy is still highly respected and this is just the kind of career-revitalizing star turn Oscar loves. Mark Wahlberg is great in “The Departed,” but it’s not flashy enough of a role to really earn him votes. Djimon Hounsou was the emotional center of “Blood Diamond,” but people don’t like “Blood Diamond” as much as “Dreamgirls.” Jackie Earle Haley…okay, seriously, had most anyone HEARD of “Little Children” before the nominations? I’d love to see Alan Arkin’s cantankerous patriarch from “Little Miss Sunshine” win, but methinks this is Eddie’s night.
Will Win: Eddie Murphy, “Dreamgirls”
Should Win: Alan Arkin, “Little Miss Sunshine”

BEST ACTRESS:
Helen Mirren. There is no doubt at all here. Kate Winslet will win an Oscar one day, but not for “Little Children.” Judi Dench already has, and the audience for “Notes on a Scandal” has been sparse at best. Ditto “Volver,” so Penelope Cruz’s chances go the same way. Meryl Streep is one of the great actors of our generation, WAY too good for a flimsy film like “The Devil Wears Prada,” where she tried so hard to make her character three-dimensional it undermined the point of the story. Helen Mirren, delivering one of the great performances in recent years with her “Queen,” basically HAS to win.
Will Win: Helen Mirren, “The Queen”
Should Win: Helen Mirren, “The Queen”

BEST ACTOR:
The field is a little more open here, but not much. Leonardo DiCaprio has been turning in great work for a long time, but I don’t think he’ll win for “Blood Diamond.” Ryan Gosling…come on, “Half Nelson” is even more obscure than “Little Children” was. Will Smith garnered “The Pursuit of Happyness”’s lone nomination, and the movie really doesn’t have much momentum. If there’s a spoiler, it’s Peter O’Toole for “Venus” - rewarding one of the all time greats in the twilight of his career is a grand Oscar tradition. But Forest Whitaker is one of our finest actors, and his Idi Amin in “The Last King of Scotland” is the role of a lifetime.
Will Win: Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland”
Should Win: Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland”

BEST DIRECTOR:
This is the year. It HAS to be the year. “United 93” was a great film that treated its subject matter with the utmost respect, but it didn’t get nominated in the big category. “The Queen” is a marvelous movie, but its direction is subtle and understated, which usually doesn’t net you an Oscar. I think “Letters from Iwo Jima” was the best of the five nominees, but Eastwood just won two years ago. That leaves Alejandro González Iñárritu for “Babel,” and if it’s gonna win the big category, he may be the spoiler. BUT, Marty won the Director’s Guild award, which is as close to a lead-pipe cinch as you get in this crazy guessing game. You keep hearing how “The Departed” is not really Scorcese’s best work. Perhaps not. But you know what? It’s still obviously a damn good film. And a lesser Scorcese film is better than most other directors’ masterpieces. This HAS to be the year.
Will Win: Martin Scorcese, “The Departed”
Should Win: Martin Scorcese, “The Departed”

BEST PICTURE:
This field is as wide open as any in years, since maybe 1991 when “The Silence of the Lambs” edged “Beauty and the Beast” and “JFK” to win the statue. Any of the five could conceivably win, and I’d be happy with four of them doing so. “The Departed” is a great thriller from our greatest director. “Little Miss Sunshine” is a light and funny film at its surface, with a surprisingly deep core. “The Queen” is a fascinating piece of speculative history, with the performance of the year added for good measure. And “Letters from Iwo Jima” is a simply amazing film which tells the story of the battle from the usually demonized perspective of the enemy, and finds that there is good and evil in both trenches. My gut, however, tells me that “Babel” is going to win. It’s a complicated film on the subject of racism and communication, and how our presumptions separate us. It’s the kind of film Oscar loves to honor…in fact, THEY JUST DID last year, when “Crash” pulled off its upset. I know one shouldn’t compare apples and oranges, but I found “Crash” to be the far more satisfying film, while “Babel”’s tragedies seemed to hinge far more on silly mistakes and dumb decisions, making the characters less sympathetic in my eyes. But my opinion is the minority, so figure that “Babel” will take home the statue. If I am less than enthusiastic, maybe its because the other four films in the category had so much more impact on me as a moviegoer…none more so than Clint Eastwood’s powerful and haunting treatise on war and humanity.
Will Win: “Babel”
Should Win: “Letters from Iwo Jima”