The nominees

Okay, I just woke up and am looking at da nominees for the first time. So, let us discuss...

Best Picture:
"The Aviator"
"Finding Neverland"
"Million Dollar Baby"
"Ray"
"Sideways"

"Ray" is the biggest surprise here. I was sure that Jamie Foxx's performance would get nominated, natch, but not so sure about the picture itself. "Hotel Rwanda" had been picking up a lot of momentum, and there were a few dark horse titles that threatened to sneak on here, but overall, this is a good list of candidates. I haven't seen "Million" yet (hopefully it opens here this Friday), and of the rest, my choice for best would be "The Aviator," but they're all worthy contenders.

Best Director
Martin Scorsese, "The Aviator"
Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"
Taylor Hackford, "Ray"
Alexander Payne, "Sideways"
Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake"

The story every year is who got left out - whose picture got nominated, but they didn't. This year it's Marc Forster, shunned for his work on "Finding Neverland," but my gut feeling is that "Neverland" may have been the short stack in the big category, so we really can't blame the directors for not going with the herd. And nominating Mike Leigh's work on "Vera Drake" is exactly the kind of risky move the majority of the Academy won't make, given the film's controversial subject matter (abortion). My gut still says this is (FINALLY) Martin's year, though the bizarrely-forming juggernaut that is "Sideways" might somehow derail him...again...arrgh...

Best Actor
Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda"
Johnny Depp, "Finding Neverland"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Aviator"
Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"
Jamie Foxx, "Ray"

No big surprises here, except maybe Eastwood. A few surprise omissions, though - Liam Neeson, who I was sure had it locked up for "Kinsey," and Paul Giamotti for "Sideways." My guess is Foxx has this one all set, though personally I'd go with Leo, whose work in "The Aviator" still impresses me completely.

Best Actress
Annette Bening, "Being Julia"
Catalina Sandino Moreno, "Maria Full of Grace"
Imelda Staunton, "Vera Drake"
Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"
Kate Winslet, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"

Once again, Jim Carrey gets the shaft, as enough Academy voters saw "Eternal Sunshine" to nominate his (very worthy) co-star, but not him. But hey, at least it got some ink in the big categories. No huge shocks, here, and nominating Moreno is tres cool, since it seemed few may have seen "Maria." Swank probably has this one, though, as Roger pointed out in his column, Staunton may be the dark horse.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Alda, "The Aviator"
Jamie Foxx, "Collateral"
Morgan Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby"
Thomas Haden Church, "Sideways"
Clive Owen, "Closer"

Go Alan! Go Alan! Being a longtime Alda fan, it's great to see him get a nod, though I'm fairly certain his odds of winning are pretty low. And look at Jamie, joining the extremely limited "nominated twice in one year" club! (No one point out how those twice nominated usually don't win either.) My guess here is that Thomas wins for "Sideways," though - it's a great story, it's a great performance, and if "Sideways" doesn't shock us and win in other categories, the voters will see this as giving the film its due.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator"
Laura Linney, "Kinsey"
Virginia Madsen, "Sideways"
Sophie Okonedo, "Hotel Rwanda"
Natalie Portman, "Closer"

Another good list, and "Closer" gets double ink in the big five, so cool. Linney was excellent in "Kinsey," and Madsen may have provided the key performance of "Sideways," but I'm betting Blanchett has this one sewn up, giving a great performance in a great movie, and a terrific emulation of a beloved Hollywood personality, to boot.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke, "Before Sunset"
David Magee, "Finding Neverland"
Paul Haggis, "Million Dollar Baby"
Jose Rivera, "The Motorcycle Diaries"
Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, "Sideways"

YES!!!!!! "Before Sunset" gets a nod, I am happy, and congrats to Linklater and his cast, though I'm not sure how it qualifies as "adapted" screenplay. (Maybe because it's a sequel?) No huge shocks the rest of the way (save for finally seeing the name "Motorcycle Diaries" SOMEWHERE on this list), but my guess is "Sideways" takes this one - again, under the "we like the film, just not enough to give it the major props, so here..." rule.

Best Original Screenplay
John Logan, "The Aviator"
Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry and Pierre Bismuth, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"
Brad Bird, "The Incredibles"
Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake"

Hey, more ink for "Eternal Sunshine," awesome. Only four nominees? Huh? But never mind - "Aviator" is your winner here, most likely.

(NOTE: I've quickly taken a look at a second list, and "Hotel Rwanda" is the fifth nominee. Apparently the first list I looked at made the mistake.)

Best Animated Feature
"The Incredibles"
"Shark Tale"
"Shrek 2"

The Academy is frigging nuts. (Well, you knew I had to get indignant somewhere.) The half-hearted and lifeless kiddie flick "Shark Tale" gets the nod, instead of "The Polar Express?" Did we just decide it was completely Martin's year and even nominated the animated flick he was in? Really, really bad. If there's any justice, "The Incredibles" has this one locked, sewn, and tied up with a bow.

Best Documentary
"Born Into Brothels"
"The Story of the Weeping Camel"
"Super Size Me"
"Tupac: Resurrection"
"Twist of Faith"

No "Fahrenheit," but we knew that one already because Michael didn't submit it for consideration. Save a big surprise among the three I haven't heard of, I'd guess "Super Size Me" takes this one.

(Skipping over most of the technical categories, BTW, as let's be honest, most of us don't care that much.)

Best Score
"Finding Neverland"
"Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban"
"Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events"
"The Passion of the Christ"
"The Village"

I think that's the first nod for a Harry Potter movie, like, ever. Rather weak set of nominees, here, actually. I can't say as the "Lemony" or "Village" scores had any impact on me, and as far as "The Passion," who could hear the music over all the screaming? Total guess, but "Finding Neverland."

Best Original Song
"Accidentally In Love" from "Shrek 2"
"Al Otro Lado Del Rio" from "The Motorcycle Diaries"
"Believe" from "The Polar Express"
"Learn To Be Lonely" from "The Phantom of the Opera"
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" from "The Chorus (Les Choristes)"

Okay, I have NEVER heard of "The Chorus, " so who knows. "Learn to Be Lonely" is Webber's transparent attempt to get an Oscar by writing a gratuitous song for the movie, and apparently it worked. Of the rest, I personally dug "Believe" from "Polar Express," but it wouldn't shock me to see them give it to Webber.

Visual Effects
"Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban"
"I, Robot"
"Spider-Man 2"

No "Aviator" here surprises me, but nice to see Spidey get on there somewhere...

Well, not bad, all things considered. If the goal of the Oscars is to act as advanced advertising for the business, at the very least this year, for the most part, they're steering folks to some very good work. We'll see how it goes...