Oscar Picks and Preferences

Okay, we're two days out, time for final Oscar predictions and preferences. Let's jump in with both feet and see where the little gold guy will go...start at the bottom of the list and work our way up...skipping the shorts, best Foreign Film and best doc, as no one's seen any of 'em...

Best Visual Effects:

Spidey was an outside contender for Best Picture, but ended up not getting many nominations. This means it'll probably take all the awards it can get, especially for its awesome visual effects. And of these three films, it's clearly the best movie, and made the best use of its visuals to tell a great story.

Will Win: "Spider-Man 2"
Should Win: "Spider-Man 2"

Best Sound Editing:

I always go with the loudest and most complicated film in this category - that's Spidey again. "Incredibles" has a shot, but I'm betting the techie awards skew towards arachnids this year. In this one, though, the remarkably well-done effects of "Polar Express" really captured the fantastic environments of the story, so that's where my vote would go.

Will Win: "Spider-Man 2"
Should Win: "The Polar Express"

Best Sound Mixing:

No one knows the difference between these two categories, I admit. Barring an "Aviator" sweep, I'm thinking Spidey has this one, too. Still would lean toward the Express on my ballot, though.

Will Win: "Spider-Man 2"
Should Win: "The Polar Express"

Best Original Song:

My fear is that the Academy will cave in and give Webber an Oscar for writing his superfluous number for "Phantom," written specifically BECAUSE he wanted to win an Oscar. I'll go with that as my pick, but I still dig "Believe" from "Polar Express" - it's a corny song, but it serves its movie best of these nominees, I'd say.

Will Win: "Learn to be Lonely" from "Phantom of the Opera"
Should Win: "Believe" from "The Polar Express"

Best Original Score:

I can't say any of these stuck in my memory, really, but the haunting work of John Williams has helped give the Harry Potter movies their identity, so that's where I'd lean on should. As far as will win, sheer guess.

Will Win: "Finding Neverland"
Should Win: "Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban"

Best Makeup:

Rule one: always vote for the one which used the most latex. Rule two: always vote for the one with the biggest star. Both make "Lemony" your favorite, and of these three, probably the best choice, anyway.

Will Win: "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events"
Should Win: "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events"

Best Editing:

We'll get our first taste of which way Oscar is leaning here. If "Million" wins, we may get a sweep that way. If it's "Aviator," then it goes the other. I'll say "Aviator," and given the film's great dramatic use of its cuts, I'll say it deserves it, too.

Will Win: "The Aviator"
Should Win: "The Aviator"

Best Costume Design:

Period pieces always win here, but which period - the late 19th century ("Finding Neverland"), the early 20th century ("Aviator") or the mid 20th century ("Ray")? I'll say none-of-the-above and guess that "Troy" gets this one (becoming one of the weaker Oscar-winning films ever), but I much preferred the imaginative designs of "Lemony."

Will Win: "Troy"
Should Win: "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events"

Best Cinematography:

If Oscar really wanted to be daring, it'd go to the gorgeous "House of Flying Daggers," but I'd guess that about 10% of the Academy has seen it. Keeping with the "Aviator" sweep theory, go with that one here.

Will Win: "The Aviator"
Should Win: "House of Flying Daggers"

Best Art Direction:

Always go for the most lavish sets in this one, a corollary to the "most latex" rule. I think "Lemony" has this one, but watch out for the "Aviator" to play spoiler again. To be frank, as "Phantom"'s amazing production values were the main reason to see the movie, that's where I'd lean.

Will Win: "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events"
Should Win: "Andrew Lloyd Webber's The Phantom of the Opera"

Best Animated Film:

No brainer. "The Incredibles" is in a completely different league than the other two nominees, and with "The Polar Express" being bizarrely passed over, it's a lock. And it deserves to be.

Will Win: "The Incredibles"
Should Win: "The Incredibles"

Best Adapted Screenplay:

People love "Sideways" (and rightly so), and this will be its award - like all "really good movie that we want to honor but aren't quite gonna give the big prize" things. Personally, though, even though I love "Million Dollar Baby," nothing would do my heart gladder than to see the wonderful "Before Sunset" recognized.

Will Win: "Sideways"
Should Win: "Before Sunset"

Best Original Screenplay:

"Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" is one of the most original screenplays ever written, by Hollywood's greatest writer, Charlie Kaufman, and he's never won an Oscar, despite giving us "Being John Malkovich" and "Adaptation" previously. But this ain't his year either, sadly - "Aviator" will get it, as part of its sweep.

Will Win: "The Aviator"
Should Win: "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"

Best Supporting Actress:

I'm torn on this one for my should. Both Madsen and Blanchett were great in very different roles in very different films. Go with Blanchett for doing an amazing job and not making her Katharine Hepburn a caricature. As far as who will...Blanchett. It's one of those star-turn things, I think.

Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Cate Blanchett

Best Supporting Actor:

Morgan Freeman has been too good for too long and hasn't gotten a statue, and his role was awesome as "Million Dollar Baby"'s conscience. But I'm thinking that Thomas Haden Church, who a.) had a breakout role in "Sideways," and b.) makes for a better story in the minds of voters, might take this one, as one of the film's "runner-up" prizes. Oscar typically goes to either veteran actors as a reward for a body of work, or newer performers as encouragement. It could conceiveably go either way, but...

Will Win: Thomas Haden Church
Should Win: Morgan Freeman

Best Actress:

This'll be "Million Dollar Baby"'s runner-up prize, giving it to Swank here in recognition of her amazing performance (which indeed deserves to win). If there's a spoiler, it'll be Imelda Staunton for the much-respected "Vera Drake," but have enough people seen it, really? Show of hands?

Will Win: Hilary Swank
Should Win: Hilary Swank

Best Actor:

Solid, solid group for this one. As far as should...now, I really loved DiCaprio's work in "Aviator," making Howard Hughes's descent into madness palatable and sympathetic without going over the top...but Jamie Foxx took on one of the most challenging roles an actor could ever face, a living (at the time) legend and a national treasure, and not only did him justice, but triumphed. He'll win, and he deserves to.

Will Win: Jamie Foxx
Should Win: Jamie Foxx

Best Director:

Let's get one thing straight: I think that "The Aviator" is NOT the best of the five films nominated for Best Picture. That said, this award should go to Martin Scorsese. Oscar is never about who really did the best work in a year, they're as political an animal as any award out there. And here's Scorsese, who a.) is our greatest living director, b.) has never won an Oscar, EVER, c.) made a remarkable epic about a legendary American life, and d.) whose primary competition is Clint Eastwood, who already has an Oscar for Director on his mantle. The only thing which makes me unsure here is that the Director's Guild gave it to Eastwood, and usually that's an accurate indicator, but my gut still tells me this is Marty's year - and it's about damn time.

Will Win: Martin Scorsese
Should Win: Martin Scorsese

Best Picture:

No film this year had the raw, emotional impact of "Million Dollar Baby." The controversy surrounding its events - however undeserved that controversy is, in my opinion - only underlines how powerful and effective this film is, and the debates it has inspired only dilutes the impact that it has simply as a story. Just a remarkable achievement. But it won't win Best Picture. Oscar has never been big on supporting controversial work, at least not in the big categories. We might throw a smaller Oscar or two at a quality flick that comes with a scandal attached to it, but not the grand prize. It would please me greatly to be wrong, but "The Aviator" is also a wonderful movie, is an epic, was made by a great filmmaker, has a more uplifting message than "Million," and most importantly, there's no risk in giving it the award. All this tells me...

Will Win: "The Aviator"
Should Win: "Million Dollar Baby"

Enjoy Oscar night, folks...and please, post your picks either on your blog or in my comment section! I challenge you to challenge my choices! Ha ha!